thesis-tracker

Maintain and update investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, and thesis milestones over time. Use when updating a thesis with new information, reviewing position rationale, or checking if a thesis is still intact. Triggers on "update thesis for [company]", "is my thesis still intact", "thesis check", "add data point to [company]", or "review my positions".

Thesis Tracker

Workflow

Step 1: Define or Load Thesis

If creating a new thesis:

Company: Name and ticker
Position: Long or Short
Thesis statement: 1-2 sentence core thesis (e.g., "Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as mix shifts to software")
Key pillars: 3-5 supporting arguments
Key risks: 3-5 risks that would invalidate the thesis
Catalysts: Upcoming events that could prove/disprove the thesis (earnings, product launches, regulatory decisions)
Target price / valuation: What's it worth if the thesis plays out
Stop-loss trigger: What would make you exit

If updating an existing thesis, ask the user for the new data point or development.

Step 2: Update Log

For each new data point or development:

Date: When this happened
Data point: What changed (earnings beat, management departure, competitor move, etc.)
Thesis impact: Does this strengthen, weaken, or neutralize a specific pillar?
Action: No change / Increase position / Trim / Exit
Updated conviction: High / Medium / Low

Step 3: Thesis Scorecard

Maintain a running scorecard:

Pillar	Original Expectation	Current Status	Trend
Revenue growth >20%	On track	Q3 was 22%	Stable
Margin expansion	Behind	Margins flat YoY	Concerning
New product launch	Pending	Delayed to Q2	Watch

Step 4: Catalyst Calendar

Track upcoming catalysts:

Date	Event	Expected Impact	Notes

Step 5: Output

Thesis summary suitable for:

Morning meeting discussion
Portfolio review
Risk committee presentation

Format: Concise markdown or Word doc with the scorecard, recent updates, and current conviction level.

Important Notes

A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's not a thesis
Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence
Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has happened
If the user manages multiple positions, offer to do a full portfolio thesis review
Store thesis data in a structured format so it can be referenced across sessions