forecast

Generate a weighted sales forecast with best/likely/worst scenarios, commit vs. upside breakdown, and gap analysis. Use when preparing a quarterly forecast call, assessing gap-to-quota from a pipeline CSV, deciding which deals to commit vs. call upside, or checking pipeline coverage against your number.

/forecast

If you see unfamiliar placeholders or need to check which tools are connected, see CONNECTORS.md.

Generate a weighted sales forecast with risk analysis and commit recommendations.

Usage

/forecast [period]

Generate a forecast for: $ARGUMENTS

If a file is referenced: @$1

How It Works

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                        FORECAST                                  │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  STANDALONE (always works)                                       │
│  ✓ Upload CSV export from your CRM                              │
│  ✓ Or paste/describe your pipeline deals                        │
│  ✓ Set your quota and timeline                                  │
│  ✓ Get weighted forecast with stage probabilities               │
│  ✓ Risk-adjusted projections (best/likely/worst case)           │
│  ✓ Commit vs. upside breakdown                                  │
│  ✓ Gap analysis and recommendations                             │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  SUPERCHARGED (when you connect your tools)                      │
│  + CRM: Pull pipeline automatically, real-time data             │
│  + Historical win rates by stage, segment, deal size            │
│  + Activity signals for risk scoring                            │
│  + Automatic refresh and tracking over time                     │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

What I Need From You

Step 1: Your Pipeline Data

Option A: Upload a CSV Export your pipeline from your CRM (e.g. Salesforce, HubSpot). I need at minimum:

Deal/Opportunity name
Amount
Stage
Close date

Helpful if you have:

Owner (if team forecast)
Last activity date
Created date
Account name

Option B: Paste your deals

Acme Corp - $50K - Negotiation - closes Jan 31
TechStart - $25K - Demo scheduled - closes Feb 15
BigCo - $100K - Discovery - closes Mar 30

Option C: Describe your territory "I have 8 deals in pipeline totaling $400K. Two are in negotiation ($120K), three in evaluation ($180K), three in discovery ($100K)."

Step 2: Your Targets

Quota: What's your number? (e.g., "$500K this quarter")
Timeline: When does the period end? (e.g., "Q1 ends March 31")
Already closed: How much have you already booked this period?

Output

# Sales Forecast: [Period]

**Generated:** [Date]
**Data Source:** [CSV upload / Manual input / CRM]

---

## Summary

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| **Quota** | $[X] |
| **Closed to Date** | $[X] ([X]% of quota) |
| **Open Pipeline** | $[X] |
| **Weighted Forecast** | $[X] |
| **Gap to Quota** | $[X] |
| **Coverage Ratio** | [X]x |

---

## Forecast Scenarios

| Scenario | Amount | % of Quota | Assumptions |
|----------|--------|------------|-------------|
| **Best Case** | $[X] | [X]% | All deals close as expected |
| **Likely Case** | $[X] | [X]% | Stage-weighted probabilities |
| **Worst Case** | $[X] | [X]% | Only commit deals close |

---

## Pipeline by Stage

| Stage | # Deals | Total Value | Probability | Weighted Value |
|-------|---------|-------------|-------------|----------------|
| Negotiation | [X] | $[X] | 80% | $[X] |
| Proposal | [X] | $[X] | 60% | $[X] |
| Evaluation | [X] | $[X] | 40% | $[X] |
| Discovery | [X] | $[X] | 20% | $[X] |
| **Total** | [X] | $[X] | — | $[X] |

---

## Commit vs. Upside

### Commit (High Confidence)
Deals you'd stake your forecast on:

| Deal | Amount | Stage | Close Date | Why Commit |
|------|--------|-------|------------|------------|
| [Deal] | $[X] | [Stage] | [Date] | [Reason] |

**Total Commit:** $[X]

### Upside (Lower Confidence)
Deals that could close but have risk:

| Deal | Amount | Stage | Close Date | Risk Factor |
|------|--------|-------|------------|-------------|
| [Deal] | $[X] | [Stage] | [Date] | [Risk] |

**Total Upside:** $[X]

---

## Risk Flags

| Deal | Amount | Risk | Recommendation |
|------|--------|------|----------------|
| [Deal] | $[X] | Close date passed | Update close date or move to lost |
| [Deal] | $[X] | No activity in 14+ days | Re-engage or downgrade stage |
| [Deal] | $[X] | Close date this week, still in discovery | Unlikely to close — push out |

---

## Gap Analysis

**To hit quota, you need:** $[X] more

**Options to close the gap:**
1. **Accelerate [Deal]** — Currently [stage], worth $[X]. If you can close by [date], you're at [X]% of quota.
2. **Revive [Stalled Deal]** — Last active [date]. Worth $[X]. Reach out to [contact].
3. **New pipeline needed** — You need $[X] in new opportunities at [X]x coverage to be safe.

---

## Recommendations

1. [ ] [Specific action for highest-impact deal]
2. [ ] [Action for at-risk deal]
3. [ ] [Pipeline generation recommendation if gap exists]

Stage Probabilities (Default)

If you don't provide custom probabilities, I'll use:

Stage	Default Probability
Closed Won	100%
Negotiation / Contract	80%
Proposal / Quote	60%
Evaluation / Demo	40%
Discovery / Qualification	20%
Prospecting / Lead	10%

Tell me if your stages or probabilities are different.

If CRM Connected

I'll pull your pipeline automatically
Use your actual historical win rates
Factor in activity recency for risk scoring
Track forecast changes over time
Compare to previous forecasts

Tips

Be honest about commit — Only commit deals you'd bet on. Upside is for everything else.
Update close dates — Stale close dates kill forecast accuracy. Push out deals that won't close in time.
Coverage matters — 3x pipeline coverage is healthy. Below 2x is risky.
Activity = signal — Deals with no recent activity are at higher risk than stage suggests.