earnings-preview

Build pre-earnings analysis with estimate models, scenario frameworks, and key metrics to watch. Use before a company reports quarterly earnings to prepare positioning notes, set up bull/bear scenarios, and identify what will move the stock. Triggers on "earnings preview", "what to watch for [company] earnings", "pre-earnings", "earnings setup", or "preview Q[X] for [company]".

Earnings Preview

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Context

Identify the company and reporting quarter
Pull consensus estimates via web search (revenue, EPS, key segment metrics)
Find the earnings date and time (pre-market vs. after-hours)
Review the company's prior quarter earnings call for any guidance or commentary

Step 2: Key Metrics Framework

Build a "what to watch" framework specific to the company:

Financial Metrics:

Revenue vs. consensus (total and by segment)
EPS vs. consensus
Margins (gross, operating, net) — expanding or contracting?
Free cash flow
Forward guidance vs. consensus

Operational Metrics (sector-specific):

Tech/SaaS: ARR, net retention, RPO, customer count
Retail: Same-store sales, traffic, basket size
Industrials: Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume
Financials: NIM, credit quality, loan growth, fee income
Healthcare: Scripts, patient volumes, pipeline updates

Step 3: Scenario Analysis

Build 3 scenarios with stock price implications:

Scenario	Revenue	EPS	Key Driver	Stock Reaction
Bull
Base
Bear

For each scenario:

What would need to happen operationally
What management commentary would signal this
Historical context — how has the stock moved on similar prints?

Step 4: Catalyst Checklist

Identify the 3-5 things that will determine the stock's reaction:

[Metric] vs. [consensus/whisper number] — why it matters
[Guidance item] — what the buy-side expects to hear
[Narrative shift] — any strategic changes, M&A, restructuring

Step 5: Output

One-page earnings preview with:

Company, quarter, earnings date
Consensus estimates table
Key metrics to watch (ranked by importance)
Bull/base/bear scenario table
Catalyst checklist
Trading setup: recent stock performance, implied move from options

Important Notes

Consensus estimates change — always note the source and date of estimates
"Whisper numbers" from buy-side surveys are often more relevant than published consensus
Historical earnings reactions help calibrate expectations (search for "[company] earnings reaction history")
Options-implied move tells you what the market expects — compare to your scenarios